Poland prepares itself to be again at the forefront of Western civilization. In his book “The Next 100 Years,”strategist George Friedman predicted that in the 2010s Russia was going to expand to the West and that this would trigger a new Cold War with the U.S. What we see happening in Ukraine today fits with his thesis.

Friedman also predicted that during this century Poland would become the major ally of the U.S. and would be too costly for Russia to invade. During his lecture, “Ukraine: Code Orange,” historian Marek Chodakiewicz, who holds the Kosciuszko Chair of Polish Studies at the Institute for World Politics, described that Poland is a major reference point for Russians. Nothing can stir up Russian nationalists as much as trumpeting Polish involvement in a matter of Russian interests.

If Putin has his way in Ukraine what will be the impact on Poland? The older generations tend to speak tougher than the younger. Jan M. Malek, the founder of The Polish-American Foundation for Economic Research and Education is a good example. He argues that NATO should send “a strong military group with rocket launching capabilities to the Northeastern part of the country in the vicinity of the Russian borders. Only this type of action will convince Putin and the Russian government to comply with American requests. Talking with him on other terms would be essentially a waste of time.” He concludes, “Like Hitler, Putin does not care about the threat of economic or other non-military sanctions. Those threats are, unfortunately, rather a laughing matter.”

The young are also concerned. Piotr Zapalowicz, an expert in international political economics from Wroclaw, fears that given the appearance that the West will give up on Ukraine, Putin’s Russia will continue pushing until it “liquidizes the sovereignty of this country. In the short term it would mean thousands or even hundreds of thousands of refugees from Ukraine coming to Poland.” Although he hopes it will not happen, Zapalowicz forecasts that “in longer term the win in Ukraine might convince Russia that it might use force in other former satellites, i.e. the Baltic States and Poland.”

Jacek Spendel of the Freedom and Entrepreneurship Foundation in Katowice concurs, saying “any military action next to our border, especially when we are dealing with such an unpredictable country as Russia, is of high danger. Moreover, Poland shares a border with Russian enclave of Kaliningrad which is a highly militarized area. It is in the best interest of Poland to keep Russia as far as possible therefore an independent Ukraine is very important.” Spendel continued and said, “to me personally it’s very sad that for huge effort of changing the regime (from Russian puppet one) Ukrainians get a penalty from Russia. Because it’s not about the ‘danger for the Russian people’ in Ukraine as they lie. It’s clearly about the shift of power. Russia treats Ukraine as their satellite country and now they punish Ukraine for choosing a different path.”

The most likely outcome of this crisis will be a Ukraine with a Crimean region with more autonomy and almost completely ruled by Russians, while the rest of the country, still heavily influenced by Russia, will continue in a delicate balance. A more pro-Western Ukraine leads to a more secure Poland pushing the East-West border farther East. Marcin Nowacki, of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, believes that the pro-Western tilt of Ukraine encouraged Putin to act. A more independent Ukraine would be important for those who seek a more open and democratic Russia. A pro-Western Ukraine could create a positive domino effect. If Russians see that Ukrainians, which are close to them, can become a part of the West, part of their population could start considering a Western scenario for Russia as well, especially given the strategic threat that the Chinese pose for the role of Russia across the world.

Russia taking more control of Ukraine would result in Poland playing the role of border country in some sort of a new Cold War. Additionally, it would support Russian imperial ideas and further weaken its internal liberal forces. Nevertheless, Nowacki argues, the intervention in Crimea helped unite other Ukrainians, which “for the last three months were strongly divided.”

Karolina A. Jurak, of the European Students for Liberty, is one of many who were born around the time of the fall of the Soviet Union and have never witnessed tanks crushing the dreams and rights of civil society. Jurak mentions that the youth are emotionally tied to their neighbors in the east, and focus on what they do better: writing articles, taking part in debates, having presence in the media, and also organizing protests in front of the Russian embassy and consular offices. She says, “We also gather money and clothes … my university, the John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, is supporting the fund-raising efforts of Caritas. Hospitals are treating those who were seriously injured in Kiev, and students’ houses are accommodating some refugees.” She concludes by announcing that, “I’m deeply convinced that we’ll keep acting to help Ukraine, no matter what happens in future.”

Although they did not trigger the current Ukrainian crisis, the Polish people are feeling the impact. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the more market-friendly policies of the new Poland led to much higher growth than what happened in Ukraine. This will allow Poland to better overcome the new dangers. They overcame the Swedish invasions of the 17th century, they defeated the Ottomans at the gates of Europe, and survived the Nazis and Soviets. Putin’s Russia is challenging, but not invincible, no matter what happens in Ukraine.

* Alejandro Antonio (Alex) Chafuen, Ph.D., has been president of Atlas Economic Research Foundation since 1991. A member of the board of advisors to The Center for Vision & Values and a trustee of Grove City College, he is also the president and founder of the Hispanic American Center of Economic Research. Dr. Chafuen serves on several boards including the Chase Foundation of Virginia, the Acton Institute, the Fraser Institute (Canada), and is an Active Honorary Member of the John Templeton Foundation.

Source: Forbes.com