Russia showcases its ships and weapons before its Caribbean clients.

The recent crisis in the Caucasus region has brought about a scenario evoking a recent past in which the Cold War was the gravitational core of the international order.

The current geopolitical stage is different, however. Modern economies, though still deeply dependent on oil and gas prices, cannot be subdued by such oil giants as Russia, or even Venezuela to a lesser degree. Present-day circumstances are based on mixed economic interests.

Nevertheless, Europe could not subsist without Russian oil, and Russia would not survive if foreign investment froze and if boycotts were implemented upon the movement of modern-day Russian capital which, along with the arms trade, fuels its flourishing economy.

That is the underlying reason why the war with Georgia lasted a mere four days.

Those mixed interests caused China and other Russian allies with substantial presence in the international scene, unlike Nicaragua, to abstain from passing judgment on the Kremlin decrees acknowledging the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Mixed interests and interdependence prevailed and allowed Nicolas Sarkozy to obtain a promise of Russian withdrawal from Georgia.

In the Caribbean, however, Hugo Chávez seems as incongruent as Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. Where the Georgian leader erred in believing that the national unity of his country would consolidate by attacking its powerful neighbor, Chávez treads similar ground in his willingness to preserve his stranglehold on power and provoke Venezuela's powerful neighbor and biggest customer, the United States.

This new bullying context, evidenced in Europe since August, is right up Chávez's alley. During his Moscow visit last July, the Bolivarian leader announced that the Russian forces would be welcomed in Venezuela. Consequently, the atmosphere of braggadocio in the Caribbean seems to be taking form in light of Russian announcements of its intent to send its Peter the Great warship and other top-technology naval vessels to Venezuela for joint naval exercises in November.

In this scenario of crossed interests, Moscow intends to flex its born-again military muscle, through a risky and expensive mission, for the world to see. Though diplomatically labeled as a joint exercise in the territorial waters of Venezuela, main regional customer of the Russian military industry, these actions, funded by Chávez, will be nothing else but an international display in which Moscow will showcase its array of military products before potential clients such as Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay.

Chávez's proposal is politically absurd and financially suicidal. Once again, the biggest losers will be the Venezuelan people. Though the country is in the midst of a new oil boom, it is doomed to starting over from scratch.

Labels: Russia, United States, Venezuela