If any word typifies the present situation in Venezuela it is unpredictability. From the time he came to power in early 1999 on the shoulders of a substantial majority of votes in a free election in a country accustomed to democracy for well nigh a half a century, the country has been plunged into a turmoil the final outcome of which is anything but certain. Based on a public support for change which initially reached 80%, Chavez managed to push through a new constitution (approved by a mere 30% of the registered electors) that, among other things changed the country's five year electoral cycles, permitted him to "reelect" himself in 2000 for a renewable six year term, and attempted to exert control over all State institutions.

Civic resistance to this "revolutionary" project was not long in coming. The first such actions came in response to an attempt to "cubanize" public education, and where followed closely by resistance to the Chavez sponsored invasions of private agricultural properties and to his attempt to subvert and control an independent labor movement with a long tradition of support for democracy and rejection of Marxist ideology.

By the end of 2001, Chavez`s approval rating had fallen to under 30%, and a body of laws issued by the Executive branch under a "fast track" authority that effectively changed the basis of Venezuela's capitalist economy met with increasing resistance that produced an unprecedented work stoppage December 10^th 2001, sponsored by a coalition between the forces of labor and business.

Continued resistance to a hegemonic project with marxist overtones, widespread corruption, and economic mismanagement, produced the largest protest demonstration in Venezuela's history as a response to the political control attempted by Chavez of the country's oil industry on April 11th of this year which ended in a number of deaths, confusion, and a temporary resignation by Chavez when the military refused to fire on the protesting crowds, leaving such a task to the paramilitary chavista "bolivarian circles".

Since that date, the positions of the Chavez Government, the democratic political opposition, and the most important elements of civil society have drifted ever farther apart, making meaningful dialog to resolve the crisis very difficult. On the one hand Chavez, with the help of those in the US who would seek to score points against the Bush Administration in an election year, sells himself internationally as the victim of a continuing coup plot to overthrow him. The opposition, on the other hand is intent on his ouster by democratic means through the use of mechanisms available to them in the 1999 Constitution, basically by calling for an early referendum or elections that will permit the new popular distribution of supports to express itself.

In the meantime, the economic situation has deteriorated further with 90% devaluation since January, a contraction of 7% of GNP in the first semester, 16% unemployment, 35% inflation, and investment practically at a standstill in spite of high oil prices. All of which contribute to more discontent in the population and especially in the lower income groups that constitute the Government's core support. A situation that will hardly reverse itself until there is a successful outcome to the present political deadlock.

Chavez's friendship with Fidel Castro (who's heir he aspires to be in the eyes of Latin-American extreme left), his support for extremist elements in the Continent, his purported links to Arab Fundamentalists through OPEC, and his constant attacks on Market societies typifying them as "savage neoliberalism" at every opportunity are not precisely the things that might endear Venezuela to financial markets and investors who are required to jumpstart the stagnated economy.

Of late some business leaders have indicated that such ineptitude in economic management cannot be accidental and that it is part of a plan to obliterate local entrepreneurs who have been one of the pillars of opposition to the present situation, much as Castro did in the early sixties. Whether this is true or not, only time will tell, but the truth of the matter is that Venezuelan society has demonstrated that it will lightly tolerate actions that fly in the face of the civic liberties that have been consolidated over the past few decades.

* President of CEDICE

Fuente: http://www.cedice.org.ve