Bush Poised to Counter Chávez

by John D. McKinnon and Matt Moffett

President Bush travels to Latin America this week to take on Hugo Chávez's militant brand of economic populism. But the weakened U.S. president could spend much of the trip defending against charges his own economic policies have helped shortchange the region.

In a speech in Washington today, Mr. Bush is expected to lay out a central theme of his Latin America tour -- that democracy is key to improving life for the millions of working poor in the region. As an example, he is expected to cite the Millennium Challenge Account, a U.S. government-sponsored program set up in 2004 to channel aid to poor countries that meet certain democratic standards. During his trip, which begins Thursday, he also is expected to tout an agreement with Brazil to spread production of ethanol throughout the region, as a way of promoting greater prosperity -- and countering the influence of Venezuelan President Chavez's oil wealth.

Mr. Bush's message seeks to respond to widespread complaints in the region that globalization and international-development policies -- of which he is viewed by many there as a main champion -- have done little to improve the lives of ordinary people there. The president also hopes to use the democracy theme to push back against what he views as Mr. Chávez's authoritarian tendencies.

Mr. Bush won't venture into any countries that have moved into Mr. Chávez's sphere of influence, including Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Instead, he plans during his weeklong trip to visit five generally friendly countries: Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico.

Mr. Chávez and his allies are preparing a typical street-theater response to Mr. Bush's visit. Argentina's President Nestor Kirchner has invited Mr. Chávez to a public demonstration, most likely in Buenos Aires, that probably will coincide with Mr. Bush's visit to neighboring Uruguay at the end of the week .

Mr. Chávez has also been talking up confrontation with Mr. Bush on his daily radio program. He has alleged that Mr. Bush will use his latest trip to weaken the South American common market, known as Mercosur, that Mr. Chávez wants to use to promote trade and investment ties among members and to counteract U.S. dominance in the region. Besides Venezuela, Mercosur's members include Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

In Brazil, labor unions and social groups plan protests against Mr. Bush. Demonstrations are likely in Venezuela and elsewhere in the region.

Mr. Chávez has his own problems. Many in Latin America view the Venezuelan leader as a meddler with militaristic tendencies. A regionwide poll taken in December by the Latinobarometro firm of Santiago, Chile, found that 39% of Latin Americans viewed both Messrs. Bush and Chávez negatively -- a level of disapproval exceeded among the region's leaders only by Cuba's Fidel Castro, Mr. Chávez's ally and mentor.

The prospect of further conflict between Messrs. Bush and Chávez threatens to distract from the U.S. president's efforts to rebuild ties to the region, which have suffered given the U.S. focus on terrorism and the Middle East.

The most important stop for Mr. Bush may be Brazil, the largest Latin economy, where he is scheduled to meet with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In São Paulo, South America's biggest city, Mr. Bush is expected to take a firsthand look at the region's poverty, underscoring his concern for economic development.

Mr. Bush aims to accelerate his drive for alternative fuels by announcing a partnership with Brazil to broaden the global market for ethanol. The plan envisions production across Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as greater standardization. Mr. da Silva is expected to seek lower U.S. tariffs on Brazil's sugar-based ethanol, but prospects of that are slim in Congress.

Beyond ethanol, Mr. Bush "wants to maintain [Mr. da Silva] as a mediator in Latin America and a counterweight to Chávez," said Gilberto Dupas, a specialist in international relations at the University of São Paulo. Despite Brazil's strong trade ties and cordial relations with Venezuela, Brazilians blame Mr. Chávez for encouraging Bolivian President Evo Morales to announce the nationalization of the country's oil industry last year.

Mr. Bush's next stop, Uruguay, could give him another wedge against Mr. Chávez and Mercosur. The U.S. has been seeking a free-trade agreement with Uruguay, and Mercosur would have to ease its rules to allow Uruguay to remain a member, if it strikes a deal with the U.S.

Mr. Bush is expected to get a warm reception in Colombia, where he is relatively popular. That is due largely to Plan Colombia, a U.S. military- and social-assistance program started under the Clinton administration.

In Guatemala, Mr. Bush is expected to toast early benefits of the Central American Free Trade Agreement, a regional, tariff-reducing pact ratified by Congress in 2005, as well as the country's progress toward building a democracy.

In Mexico, the country with the closest ties to the U.S., Mr. Bush is set to meet with recently inaugurated Mexican leader Felipe Calderón to discuss such sensitive issues as immigration. Hoping to nudge U.S. immigration reform, Mr. Calderón introduced a plan Tuesday aimed at providing better treatment to the Central Americans who come through Mexico's southern border.

Analysts said Mr. Calderón is likely to use the initiative to show that progress can be made on bilateral issues facing the U.S. and Mexico. That, in turn, could help Mr. Bush persuade Congress to pass a comprehensive immigration-reform bill that includes a guest-worker provision.

Source: Wall Street Journal