López Obrador returns to Mexican spotlight

by Adam Thompson

Flags are waving in the warm evening light in the Zócalo, Mexico City’s main square, and thousands of people have gathered to hear Andrés Manuel López Obrador, leader of the country’s left, speak out against the government’s imminent energy reform proposals.

“If we allow private companies to come in, we would be left without any possibility of developing Mexico,” he proclaims, to cheers from the crowd and a sea of fists held high. “How long would it be before we stop being a nation and turn into a colony?”

After almost 18 months in the political wilderness following his narrow defeat in the 2006 presidential elections, Amlo, as Mr López Obrador is known, is back. It is largely thanks to oil.

During Tuesday’s rally in the Zócalo, Mr López Obrador criticised the government’s plans to give the private sector a greater role in the country’s oil industry, and vowed to “defend our sovereignty”.

He said that if Felipe Calderón, Mexico’s centre-right president, did not scrap his plans for reform, he would send “brigades” of volunteers to surround strategic installations around the country, including airports and roads. The resistance, he said, could turn into a national strike.

Few doubt the need to do something to turn round Mexico’s declining force as an oil producer. The government relies on Pemex, the state oil monopoly, to supply about 40 per cent of its total oil revenue but production is falling: February figures show that output has dropped almost 6 per cent in the last 12 months.

With Pemex inefficient and short of cash, current laws prohibiting the company from entering into joint ventures with private capital and public opinion against sweeping change, Sergio Sarmiento, an economist and respected columnist, is far from optimistic. “The way things are going we will stop being an oil-exporting nation within five to 10 years,” he says.

Most Mexicans regard Pemex as a bastion of national pride. Alejandro Hope, from the GEA think-tank in Mexico City, says: “They totally reject the idea of private investment in the sector. Amlo is using that as a way of mobilising his base support.”

Other things have been going right for Mr López Obrador, too. Last month, Juan Camilo Mouriño , the interior minister, found himself facing allegations that he awarded oil contracts to family members. He has denied wrongdoing.

Moreover, Alejandro Encinas, an ally of Mr López Obrador, appeared to have won an election on Sunday to become president of Amlo’s deeply divided Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) – although vote-counting has since been suspended following allegations of foul play.

Mr Hope argues that Mr López Obrador is using the oil issue not only to get at the government but also to obtain victories within his party. “The PRD may be united on the energy issue but the longer this goes on the more Amlo’s party rivals are going to see it as a campaign against them.”

Source: Financial Times

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